econ.sdstate.edu

MINNEAPOLIS
WHEAT FUTURES

The South Dakota average price for spring wheat late last week was $5.05 per bushel, 2 cents lower than a week ago.

The South Dakota average price for winter wheat late last week was $4.15 per bushel, 2 cents lower than a week ago.

Wheat futures performed much like corn and soybeans this past week, with one day of strong gains that were followed by strong losses. Even though this past week’s impact of the value of the dollar, crude oil value and thoughts that the wheat market recent losses were a bit overdone, the real issue for wheat still lies in the very bearish nature of the huge growth in domestic and world supplies. Domestic carryover supplies from the 2009 wheat crop are currently projected at 976 million bushels, a record for the United States. World supplies are currently projected at 7.2 billion bushels, an amount that is similar to the late 1990s when world wheat supplies were at all-time record levels. While this factor has to be viewed as very bearish, the uncertainty of how long this will remain a bearish factor could be determined by planted acres to wheat for 2010. Winter wheat plantings in the United States are considerably lower than a year ago, and the major spring wheat producing area of the country (the northern plains) was extremely wet going into the winter and is likely to experience some planting problems this spring. While it is too early to tell how spring wheat planting will shake out this spring, it is a factor that could impact supplies going into 2011.

USDA’s monthly supply and demand numbers from the most recent World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates report are summarized in a file that is linked below. For complete details, simply click on the link entitled, “Wheat Supply and Demand.”

Wheat basis data and cash wheat price data for various regions of South Dakota is available by connecting with a link at the bottom of this page. To access the charts for your region of the state, just click on the links entitled “Spring wheat cash and basis charts” and “Winter wheat cash and basis charts”. This basis information is compiled by the Economics Department at South Dakota State University.